Commentary: The battle for Myanmar's seat in the UN General Assembly
SYDNEY: Across Myanmar, the boxing continues between the armed services and those opposed to the military machine coup d'etat of Feb 1.
Opposition to the coup began with non-trigger-happy resistance in the form of the Civil Disobedience Move.
The aim is now revolution and an stop to the military machine's decades-long dominance of political life. The revolutionaries have brought within their fold some of the armed ethnic organisations that take long fought against the military machine in the country's borderlands. Civil war is looming.
A different battle for Myanmar is being fought in the United Nations.
On Sep 14, the 75th United nations General Associates (UNGA) will encounter in New York. Presidents, prime number ministers and dictators from across the world – or their representatives – will get together to discuss, debate and make recommendations on global problems.
The question de jour is who volition represent Myanmar – the military'south representative or the representative of the democratically elected, ousted regime?
Information technology is the chore of a nine-land Credentials Committee to brand a recommendation to the UNGA about whose credentials to take.
It is rare for the Committee to accept the credentials of an ousted government that does non hold power or control territory, simply information technology is not unprecedented (Haiti in 1992, Sierra Leone in 1997).
In some contentious cases, the Committee has deferred making whatsoever conclusion at all (Afghanistan in 1996 and Cambodia in 1997).
What happens in the UNGA is another matter over again. It is common practice for the UNGA to have the recommendations of the Credentials Committee without a vote.
But at that place is no rule that it must. In 1973, the UNGA voted to refuse the credentials of the representatives of Due south Africa because of the country'southward anti-autonomous apartheid regime.
HOW THE United nations DEALS WITH REGIME CHANGE
In the case of Myanmar, the UNGA stands with the democratically elected regime. In June, the UNGA passed a resolution calling on Myanmar's armed forces to respect the volition of the people – as freely expressed in the Nov eight, 2022 election – and chosen on all countries to end arms dealing with Myanmar.
The resolution is not binding merely it is significant – the UNGA very rarely condemns coups. The resolution was passed with only ane vote against – that of Belarus – and with the back up of more than half the Asean (ASEAN) states.
A vote in the UNGA nearly the credentials of the Myanmar appointee would probably go the way of the ousted government.
In the run-up to September, Myanmar's government-in-exile, the National Unity Government (NUG), is engaged in a worldwide lobbying effort for diplomatic recognition. Recognition – by powerful states or past many states – would boost the NUG's example for recognition by the Credentials Committee.
Recognition of a government on a state-to-state ground is a unilateral political act – states are entitled to recognise whichever government they want. The general practice is that states recognise the government that exercises military control over the territory of the state – and holds the capital city.
On this count, in Myanmar's case, the military's claim is stronger.
The armed forces controls Myanmar's airspace and while it does, the revolutionaries cannot win the battle for territory. People's republic of china, Russia and many of Myanmar's neighbours in Association of southeast asian nations have effectively recognised the governing authority created by the military, the Country Administrative Quango (SAC).
Will THE NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT (NUG) GET A SEAT?
The NUG is pursuing the argument that states should recognise the body that best represents the will of the people – and their right to self-determination. On this count, the NUG's claim is undoubtedly the stronger.
The National League for Commonwealth (NLD) was the articulate winner of the 2022 ballot, despite the armed forces's claim that the ballot was tainted by irregularities. Key NLD members such as State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint form role of the NUG.
Other members include parliamentarians from the ousted government and representatives of virtually of the country's many indigenous states – and a Rohingya representative.
No state has notwithstanding granted recognition to the NUG, though many accept met with NUG representatives. In recent meetings of the Un Human Rights Council and the World Health Organisation, neither the NUG nor the SAC has been given a seat. This may be the outcome in the UNGA as well.
It would be a historic moral victory for the men and women fighting in Myanmar if a representative of the NUG were to take the seat of Myanmar in September.
But it would also seriously undermine the prospect of bringing the crisis to an end.
With the symbolic support of the Un behind them, those on the footing in Myanmar would fight harder for a costly and improbable victory.
The military, ostracised however further, would have fewer reasons to move forward with the but concession it has fabricated to date – the Five-Point Consensus adopted at the ASEAN Leaders Coming together on April 24.
ASEAN has now appointed a Special Envoy to Myanmar and the Un has committed to working with the Envoy to alleviate Myanmar'south growing humanitarian crisis.
Leaving Myanmar's seat vacant in the UNGA is the best representation of what is happening on the ground. It also provides the best take chances of stemming the tide of ceremonious war.
Catherine Renshaw is a Professor in the School of Police force at Western Sydney University. Her most contempo volume is Human Rights and Participatory Politics in Southeast Asia (University of Pennsylvania Printing, 2019). This commentary first appeared in the Lowy Institute'southward blog The Interpreter.
Source: https://cnalifestyle.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/myanmar-united-nations-general-assembly-seat-298151
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